Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Pelicans POR @ NO

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

12-23  |  Road

119
FINAL
Wed, Jan 8 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

7-30  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.3
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.3 points (New Orleans)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

26.6%

Pelicans Cover

73.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -6.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

POR By 1-7 points

16.5%

POR By 8-14 points

6.5%

NO By 1-7 points

26.7%

NO By 8-14 points

24.6%

AI Model Projected Score
106.35
PORTLAND
112.61
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
PORTLAND
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 NO @ POR 106 - 118
Jan 2, 2026 POR @ NO 122 - 109
Dec 11, 2025 POR @ NO 120 - 143
Nov 12, 2025 POR @ NO 125 - 117
Jan 8, 2025 POR @ NO 119 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +51.6% more
New Orleans: 6.2 vs Portland: 4.1
Steals (L5) +45.2% more
New Orleans: 9.9 vs Portland: 6.8
Free Throw % (L5) +5.9%
New Orleans: 77.2% vs Portland: 71.3%
Turnovers (L5) +26.1% more
Portland: 17.3 vs New Orleans: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 106.4 119
NO Score 112.6 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 37.8 32.4 / 36.1
Assists 27.0 / 26.2 19.0 / 24.0
Blocks 6.2 / 4.1 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 50.1 44.4 / 54.5
Free Throw % 77.2 / 71.3 72.7 / 76.9
Rebounding 42.9 / 43.5 41.0 / 44.0
Steals 9.9 / 6.8 11.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 17.3 19.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
POR
NO
POR
ML
62% 98-61
53% 56-49
58% 48-35
55% 49-40
ATS
68% 107-51-1
62% 65-39-1
58% 48-35
55% 49-40
TTL
75% 119-40
56% 58-46-1
100% 83-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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