MIAMI
HEATMIA
18-17 | Road
97
UTAH
JAZZUTAH
9-26 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
JAZZ
0%
HEAT
--
JAZZ
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)
MIA By 1-7 points
22.1%
MIA By 8-14 points
11.1%
UTAH By 1-7 points
27.1%
UTAH By 8-14 points
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
109.53
MIAMI
Utah
112.22
UTAH
Simulated Score
Miami
MIAMI
Utah
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jazz
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jazz (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 221.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
UTAH @ MIA
115 - 111
Jan 24, 2026
MIA @ UTAH
147 - 116
Jan 9, 2025
MIA @ UTAH
97 - 92
Jan 4, 2025
UTAH @ MIA
136 - 100
Mar 2, 2024
UTAH @ MIA
120 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+34.3% more
Utah: 17.5
vs
Miami: 13.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.3%
Utah: 85.0%
vs
Miami: 75.7%
Rebounding (L5)
+8.1% more
Utah: 48.4
vs
Miami: 44.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
Utah: 37.5%
vs
Miami: 34.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
109.5
97
UTAH Score
112.2
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.5 / 34.5
30.6 / 28.0
Assists
25.1 / 28.5
20.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.5
7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 46.7
39.8 / 39.6
Free Throw %
85.0 / 75.7
88.2 / 73.3
Rebounding
48.4 / 44.7
49.0 / 49.0
Steals
7.5 / 8.5
9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
17.5 / 13.0
17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
UTAH
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
MIA
UTAH
MIA
ML
60%
96-63
48%
46-50
48%
40-43
59%
48-34
ATS
68%
108-51
51%
49-47
48%
40-43
59%
48-34
TTL
75%
119-39-1
59%
57-39
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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