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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

31-6  |  Road

136
FINAL
Sun, Jan 12 • 6:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

6-30  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
THUNDER --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.1
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.1 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

82.0%

Wizards Cover

18.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -9.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

24.1%

OKC By 8-14 points

26.9%

WSH By 1-7 points

11.9%

WSH By 8-14 points

3.9%

AI Model Projected Score
117
OKLAHOMA CITY
107.86
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
OKLAHOMA CITY
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 224.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 21, 2026 OKC @ WSH 132 - 111
Oct 30, 2025 WSH @ OKC 108 - 127
Jan 12, 2025 OKC @ WSH 136 - 95
Dec 23, 2024 WSH @ OKC 105 - 123
Feb 23, 2024 WSH @ OKC 106 - 147
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +42.4% more
Oklahoma City: 9.8 vs Washington: 5.6
Blocks (L5) +32.7% more
Oklahoma City: 6.5 vs Washington: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5) +13.7%
Oklahoma City: 86.1% vs Washington: 72.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.2%
Oklahoma City: 51.0% vs Washington: 43.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 117.0 136
WSH Score 107.9 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 43.2 19.6 / 37.1
Assists 25.8 / 25.8 20.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.4 / 6.5 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 51.0 33.7 / 47.4
Free Throw % 72.3 / 86.1 90.9 / 94.3
Rebounding 46.3 / 42.7 39.0 / 56.0
Steals 5.6 / 9.8 6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 17.0 / 13.7 18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
OKC
WSH
OKC
ML
70% 112-49
70% 80-34
47% 39-44
48% 46-49
ATS
69% 111-49-1
73% 83-30-1
47% 39-44
48% 46-49
TTL
74% 119-41-1
67% 76-38
100% 83-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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