Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Celtics NO @ BOS

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

8-31  |  Road

119
FINAL
Sun, Jan 12 • 6:00 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

27-11  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
PELICANS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.2 points (Boston)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

23.6%

Celtics Cover

76.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -7.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

NO By 1-7 points

15.0%

NO By 8-14 points

5.6%

BOS By 1-7 points

26.1%

BOS By 8-14 points

25.5%

AI Model Projected Score
108.7
NEW ORLEANS
115.88
BOSTON
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 224.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 NO @ BOS 118 - 144
Oct 27, 2025 BOS @ NO 122 - 90
Jan 31, 2025 BOS @ NO 118 - 116
Jan 12, 2025 NO @ BOS 119 - 120
Mar 30, 2024 BOS @ NO 104 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +8.0%
Boston: 80.3% vs New Orleans: 72.3%
Steals (L5) +18.9% more
New Orleans: 9.2 vs Boston: 7.4
Assists (L5) +9.7% more
New Orleans: 26.6 vs Boston: 24.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
New Orleans: 37.5% vs Boston: 32.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 108.7 119
BOS Score 115.9 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 37.5 29.5 / 45.9
Assists 24.0 / 26.6 23.0 / 24.0
Blocks 6.5 / 6.1 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 45.1 43.6 / 46.5
Free Throw % 80.3 / 72.3 82.6 / 84.6
Rebounding 42.9 / 42.8 55.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.4 / 9.2 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 13.9 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NO
BOS
NO
ML
57% 61-46
62% 98-61
53% 47-41
58% 48-35
ATS
59% 61-43-3
68% 107-51-1
53% 47-41
58% 48-35
TTL
56% 60-47
75% 119-40
100% 88-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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