Home / NBA Projections NBA / Spurs @ Lakers SA @ LAL

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

18-19  |  Road

126
FINAL
Mon, Jan 13 • 10:30 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

20-16  |  Home

102
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
SPURS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Los Angeles)
SpursSA (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

34.6%

Lakers Cover

65.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

SA By 1-7 points

20.2%

SA By 8-14 points

9.4%

LAL By 1-7 points

27.4%

LAL By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
109.36
SAN ANTONIO
113.31
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
SAN ANTONIO
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 10, 2026 SA @ LAL 136 - 108
Jan 7, 2026 LAL @ SA 91 - 107
Dec 10, 2025 SA @ LAL 132 - 119
Nov 5, 2025 SA @ LAL 116 - 118
Mar 17, 2025 SA @ LAL 109 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
Los Angeles: 47.3% vs San Antonio: 42.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Los Angeles: 37.4% vs San Antonio: 32.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
Los Angeles: 81.0% vs San Antonio: 77.1%
Blocks (L5) +27.9% more
San Antonio: 7.1 vs Los Angeles: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 109.4 126
LAL Score 113.3 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 32.5 31.8 / 37.1
Assists 25.0 / 28.2 24.0 / 30.0
Blocks 5.1 / 7.1 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 42.1 44.8 / 53.3
Free Throw % 81.0 / 77.1 62.5 / 85.0
Rebounding 40.3 / 49.9 40.0 / 41.0
Steals 5.9 / 6.8 9.0 / 16.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 12.5 19.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
SA
LAL
SA
ML
61% 68-43
60% 111-73
54% 49-42
58% 61-44
ATS
61% 67-43-1
58% 107-76-1
54% 49-42
58% 61-44
TTL
61% 66-43-2
74% 134-47-3
100% 91-0
100% 105-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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