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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

22-18  |  Road

116
FINAL
Wed, Jan 15 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

9-32  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
MAVERICKS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

59.1%

Pelicans Cover

40.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

27.0%

DAL By 8-14 points

19.0%

NO By 1-7 points

22.6%

NO By 8-14 points

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
112.22
DALLAS
109.91
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
DALLAS
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 16, 2026 DAL @ NO 111 - 129
Dec 22, 2025 DAL @ NO 113 - 119
Nov 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 115 - 118
Nov 5, 2025 NO @ DAL 101 - 99
Feb 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 103 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +12.0% more
Dallas: 5.7 vs New Orleans: 5.0
Turnovers (L5) +9.8% more
Dallas: 13.0 vs New Orleans: 11.7
Rebounding (L5) +10.7% more
New Orleans: 43.7 vs Dallas: 39.5
Free Throw % (L5) +4.6%
New Orleans: 77.9% vs Dallas: 73.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 112.2 116
NO Score 109.9 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 33.8 33.3 / 34.3
Assists 27.8 / 26.4 24.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.0 / 5.7 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 43.9 44.3 / 47.8
Free Throw % 77.9 / 73.2 83.3 / 72.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 39.5 49.0 / 45.0
Steals 9.5 / 9.4 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 13.0 10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
DAL
NO
DAL
ML
62% 98-61
62% 63-39
58% 48-35
54% 44-37
ATS
68% 107-51-1
67% 68-34
58% 48-35
54% 44-37
TTL
75% 119-40
59% 60-41-1
100% 83-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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