UTAH
JAZZUTAH
10-29 | Road
123
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
10-32 | Home
136
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
PELICANS
0%
JAZZ
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (New Orleans)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)
UTAH By 1-7 points
22.0%
UTAH By 8-14 points
11.0%
NO By 1-7 points
27.2%
NO By 8-14 points
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
113.56
UTAH
New Orleans
116.31
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Utah
UTAH
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 229.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 7, 2026
UTAH @ NO
137 - 156
Feb 28, 2026
NO @ UTAH
115 - 105
Feb 26, 2026
NO @ UTAH
129 - 118
Mar 2, 2025
NO @ UTAH
128 - 121
Jan 20, 2025
UTAH @ NO
119 - 123
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+54.2% more
New Orleans: 10.0
vs
Utah: 6.5
Blocks (L5)
+33.4% more
New Orleans: 6.0
vs
Utah: 4.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.2%
New Orleans: 79.7%
vs
Utah: 72.5%
Turnovers (L5)
+17.4% more
Utah: 13.5
vs
New Orleans: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
113.6
123
NO Score
116.3
136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 34.6
44.0 / 34.2
Assists
26.5 / 26.4
34.0 / 30.0
Blocks
6.0 / 4.5
8.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 44.7
47.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
79.7 / 72.5
64.5 / 80.0
Rebounding
45.5 / 42.9
56.0 / 40.0
Steals
10.0 / 6.5
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 13.5
13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
NO
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
UTAH
NO
UTAH
ML
62%
98-61
60%
96-63
58%
48-35
48%
40-43
ATS
68%
107-51-1
68%
108-51
58%
48-35
48%
40-43
TTL
75%
119-40
75%
119-39-1
100%
83-0
100%
83-0
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