NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
12-32 | Road
126
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
29-15 | Home
139
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
PELICANS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
NO By 1-7 points
21.5%
NO By 8-14 points
10.5%
MEM By 1-7 points
27.3%
MEM By 8-14 points
20.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
119.92
NEW ORLEANS
Memphis
123.03
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Memphis
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
MEM @ NO
106 - 114
Jan 23, 2026
NO @ MEM
133 - 127
Nov 26, 2025
MEM @ NO
133 - 128
Oct 22, 2025
NO @ MEM
122 - 128
Mar 9, 2025
MEM @ NO
107 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+9.8% more
Memphis: 13.7
vs
New Orleans: 12.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Memphis: 49.2%
vs
New Orleans: 45.2%
Blocks (L5)
+41.0% more
New Orleans: 7.1
vs
Memphis: 4.2
Rebounding (L5)
+9.2% more
New Orleans: 47.7
vs
Memphis: 43.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
119.9
126
MEM Score
123.0
139
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.8 / 37.6
45.2 / 41.2
Assists
29.1 / 28.7
38.0 / 30.0
Blocks
4.2 / 7.1
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 45.2
55.4 / 54.2
Free Throw %
80.3 / 79.6
100.0 / 68.8
Rebounding
43.3 / 47.7
43.0 / 35.0
Steals
9.5 / 10.5
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 12.5
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
NO
MEM
NO
ML
57%
59-44
62%
98-61
50%
41-41
58%
48-35
ATS
63%
65-38
68%
107-51-1
50%
41-41
58%
48-35
TTL
70%
71-31-1
75%
119-40
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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