Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Raptors NO @ TOR

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

12-34  |  Road

104
FINAL
Mon, Jan 27 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

13-32  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
📊
RAPTORS
100%
PELICANS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (New Orleans)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

76.0%

Raptors Cover

24.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

NO By 1-7 points

26.2%

NO By 8-14 points

25.4%

TOR By 1-7 points

15.2%

TOR By 8-14 points

5.7%

AI Model Projected Score
115.96
NEW ORLEANS
108.91
TORONTO
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 224.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 NO @ TOR 106 - 119
Mar 11, 2026 TOR @ NO 111 - 122
Jan 27, 2025 NO @ TOR 104 - 113
Nov 27, 2024 TOR @ NO 119 - 93
Mar 5, 2024 NO @ TOR 139 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +8.7% more
New Orleans: 5.5 vs Toronto: 5.0
Turnovers (L5) +34.7% more
Toronto: 17.2 vs New Orleans: 12.8
Assists (L5) +16.8% more
Toronto: 30.9 vs New Orleans: 26.4
Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Toronto: 50.8% vs New Orleans: 44.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 116.0 104
TOR Score 108.9 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 34.5 27.3 / 21.4
Assists 30.9 / 26.4 31.0 / 21.0
Blocks 5.0 / 5.5 5.0 / 11.0
Field Goal % 50.8 / 44.8 43.0 / 43.8
Free Throw % 76.5 / 76.3 78.3 / 66.7
Rebounding 45.2 / 42.0 54.0 / 46.0
Steals 8.8 / 8.6 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 17.2 / 12.8 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NO
TOR
NO
ML
55% 57-47
62% 98-61
55% 48-39
58% 48-35
ATS
61% 62-40-2
68% 107-51-1
55% 48-39
58% 48-35
TTL
60% 62-42
75% 119-40
100% 87-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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