Home / NBA Projections NBA / Wizards @ Mavericks WSH @ DAL

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

6-38  |  Road

108
FINAL
Mon, Jan 27 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

24-22  |  Home

130
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
WIZARDS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.5
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Dallas)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

22.6%

Mavericks Cover

77.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -7.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

WSH By 1-7 points

14.5%

WSH By 8-14 points

5.3%

DAL By 1-7 points

25.8%

DAL By 8-14 points

25.8%

AI Model Projected Score
100.23
WASHINGTON
107.76
DALLAS
Simulated Score
WASHINGTON
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 208.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 DAL @ WSH 111 - 105
Oct 24, 2025 WSH @ DAL 117 - 107
Jan 27, 2025 WSH @ DAL 108 - 130
Dec 5, 2024 DAL @ WSH 137 - 101
Feb 12, 2024 WSH @ DAL 104 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +50.5% more
Dallas: 5.8 vs Washington: 3.9
Turnovers (L5) +21.6% more
Dallas: 15.4 vs Washington: 12.7
Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
Dallas: 47.4% vs Washington: 40.7%
Steals (L5) +30.9% more
Washington: 9.2 vs Dallas: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 100.2 108
DAL Score 107.8 130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 33.8 44.4 / 29.7
Assists 22.1 / 25.2 39.0 / 23.0
Blocks 5.8 / 3.9 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 40.7 53.3 / 41.6
Free Throw % 78.5 / 77.1 70.6 / 76.5
Rebounding 44.8 / 43.0 51.0 / 45.0
Steals 6.3 / 9.2 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.4 / 12.7 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
WSH
DAL
WSH
ML
62% 63-39
70% 112-49
54% 44-37
47% 39-44
ATS
67% 68-34
69% 111-49-1
54% 44-37
47% 39-44
TTL
59% 60-41-1
74% 119-41-1
100% 81-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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