Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Wizards TOR @ WSH

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

14-32  |  Road

106
FINAL
Wed, Jan 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

6-39  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
RAPTORS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.7
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.7 points (Toronto)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

74.8%

Wizards Cover

25.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR -6.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-7 points

26.4%

TOR By 8-14 points

25.0%

WSH By 1-7 points

15.8%

WSH By 8-14 points

6.1%

AI Model Projected Score
109.86
TORONTO
103.17
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
TORONTO
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Raptors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Raptors (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 TOR @ WSH 134 - 125
Dec 26, 2025 TOR @ WSH 117 - 138
Nov 21, 2025 WSH @ TOR 110 - 140
Oct 12, 2025 TOR @ WSH 113 - 112
Mar 24, 2025 TOR @ WSH 112 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.7% more
Toronto: 5.0 vs Washington: 3.6
Turnovers (L5) +23.4% more
Toronto: 15.8 vs Washington: 12.1
Assists (L5) +20.7% more
Toronto: 30.9 vs Washington: 24.5
Rebounding (L5) +9.3% more
Toronto: 48.2 vs Washington: 43.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 109.9 106
WSH Score 103.2 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.4 / 35.5 16.7 / 35.5
Assists 24.5 / 30.9 17.0 / 31.0
Blocks 3.6 / 5.0 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.0 / 48.2 38.9 / 47.7
Free Throw % 76.9 / 77.1 72.4 / 73.3
Rebounding 43.7 / 48.2 43.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.8 / 8.5 6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 15.8 27.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TOR
WSH
TOR
ML
70% 112-49
55% 57-47
47% 39-44
55% 48-39
ATS
69% 111-49-1
61% 62-40-2
47% 39-44
55% 48-39
TTL
74% 119-41-1
60% 62-42
100% 83-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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