Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Knicks DEN @ NY

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

28-18  |  Road

112
FINAL
Wed, Jan 29 • 7:30 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

31-16  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
KNICKS
0%
NUGGETS --
KNICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (New York)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 KnicksNY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

17.1%

Knicks Cover

82.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NY -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)

DEN By 1-7 points

11.4%

DEN By 8-14 points

3.6%

NY By 1-7 points

23.7%

NY By 8-14 points

27.1%

AI Model Projected Score
115.3
DENVER
124.81
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
DENVER
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knicks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knicks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 240.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 NY @ DEN 142 - 103
Feb 4, 2026 DEN @ NY 127 - 134
Jan 29, 2025 DEN @ NY 112 - 122
Nov 25, 2024 NY @ DEN 145 - 118
Mar 21, 2024 NY @ DEN 100 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +37.0% more
New York: 12.7 vs Denver: 9.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.7%
New York: 38.6% vs Denver: 32.9%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.0%
New York: 82.7% vs Denver: 80.7%
Turnovers (L5) +22.8% more
Denver: 15.6 vs New York: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 115.3 112
NY Score 124.8 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 32.9 41.2 / 35.7
Assists 31.6 / 32.8 33.0 / 21.0
Blocks 4.4 / 5.0 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 51.8 51.6 / 48.8
Free Throw % 82.7 / 80.7 66.7 / 87.0
Rebounding 45.7 / 44.9 35.0 / 47.0
Steals 12.7 / 9.3 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 15.6 6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NY
DEN
NY
DEN
ML
61% 114-72
54% 57-48
56% 57-45
55% 47-39
ATS
67% 124-62
63% 65-38-2
56% 57-45
55% 47-39
TTL
72% 133-53
54% 56-48-1
100% 102-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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