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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

25-22  |  Road

137
FINAL
Wed, Jan 29 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

12-35  |  Home

136
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
MAVERICKS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (New Orleans)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

45.2%

Pelicans Cover

54.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

DAL By 1-7 points

24.0%

DAL By 8-14 points

13.4%

NO By 1-7 points

26.4%

NO By 8-14 points

17.3%

AI Model Projected Score
111.5
DALLAS
112.71
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
DALLAS
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 224.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 16, 2026 DAL @ NO 111 - 129
Dec 22, 2025 DAL @ NO 113 - 119
Nov 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 115 - 118
Nov 5, 2025 NO @ DAL 101 - 99
Feb 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 103 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +48.7% more
New Orleans: 8.8 vs Dallas: 5.9
Blocks (L5) +18.0% more
New Orleans: 7.3 vs Dallas: 6.2
Assists (L5) +11.3% more
Dallas: 27.8 vs New Orleans: 24.6
Turnovers (L5) +9.8% more
Dallas: 14.3 vs New Orleans: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 111.5 137
NO Score 112.7 136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.1 / 38.2 48.4 / 46.5
Assists 24.6 / 27.8 31.0 / 30.0
Blocks 7.3 / 6.2 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 49.3 53.1 / 54.2
Free Throw % 73.1 / 75.9 86.4 / 76.5
Rebounding 43.3 / 46.9 36.0 / 51.0
Steals 8.8 / 5.9 13.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 14.3 8.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
DAL
NO
DAL
ML
62% 98-61
62% 63-39
58% 48-35
54% 44-37
ATS
68% 107-51-1
67% 68-34
58% 48-35
54% 44-37
TTL
75% 119-40
59% 60-41-1
100% 83-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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