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BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

33-15  |  Road

118
FINAL
Fri, Jan 31 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

12-36  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
CELTICS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.8
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.8 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

75.0%

Pelicans Cover

25.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -6.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

26.4%

BOS By 8-14 points

25.1%

NO By 1-7 points

15.7%

NO By 8-14 points

6.0%

AI Model Projected Score
119.14
BOSTON
112.38
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
BOSTON
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 231.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 NO @ BOS 118 - 144
Oct 27, 2025 BOS @ NO 122 - 90
Jan 31, 2025 BOS @ NO 118 - 116
Jan 12, 2025 NO @ BOS 119 - 120
Mar 30, 2024 BOS @ NO 104 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +4.4%
Boston: 82.0% vs New Orleans: 77.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Boston: 38.6% vs New Orleans: 36.2%
Blocks (L5) +56.9% more
New Orleans: 6.9 vs Boston: 4.4
Steals (L5) +49.7% more
New Orleans: 10.2 vs Boston: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 119.1 118
NO Score 112.4 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 38.6 40.5 / 39.0
Assists 26.7 / 27.6 16.0 / 32.0
Blocks 6.9 / 4.4 2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 45.8 48.9 / 50.0
Free Throw % 77.5 / 82.0 68.4 / 69.2
Rebounding 40.9 / 44.3 48.0 / 35.0
Steals 10.2 / 6.8 7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 10.5 20.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
NO
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
BOS
NO
BOS
ML
62% 98-61
57% 61-46
58% 48-35
53% 47-41
ATS
68% 107-51-1
59% 61-43-3
58% 48-35
53% 47-41
TTL
75% 119-40
56% 60-47
100% 83-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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