NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
12-37 | Road
113
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
30-19 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
PELICANS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.1
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.1 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -8.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
NO By 1-7 points
13.6%
NO By 8-14 points
4.8%
DEN By 1-7 points
25.3%
DEN By 8-14 points
26.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
116.3
NEW ORLEANS
Denver
124.39
DENVER
Simulated Score
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Denver
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 240.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 13, 2026
DEN @ NO
122 - 116
Nov 19, 2025
DEN @ NO
125 - 118
Oct 29, 2025
NO @ DEN
88 - 122
Feb 5, 2025
NO @ DEN
119 - 144
Feb 3, 2025
NO @ DEN
113 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+34.6% more
Denver: 31.2
vs
New Orleans: 23.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.3%
Denver: 87.8%
vs
New Orleans: 74.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
Denver: 52.7%
vs
New Orleans: 47.9%
Steals (L5)
+15.0% more
New Orleans: 9.1
vs
Denver: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
116.3
113
DEN Score
124.4
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.9 / 37.6
36.4 / 47.4
Assists
31.2 / 23.2
28.0 / 27.0
Blocks
5.7 / 5.3
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
52.7 / 47.9
50.0 / 43.2
Free Throw %
87.8 / 74.5
80.8 / 86.4
Rebounding
42.4 / 43.3
46.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.8 / 9.1
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 14.2
6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
NO
DEN
NO
ML
54%
57-48
62%
98-61
55%
47-39
58%
48-35
ATS
63%
65-38-2
68%
107-51-1
55%
47-39
58%
48-35
TTL
54%
56-48-1
75%
119-40
100%
86-0
100%
83-0
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