SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
21-26 | Road
126
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
23-27 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
HAWKS
0%
SPURS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
SA By 1-7 points
22.2%
SA By 8-14 points
11.2%
ATL By 1-7 points
27.1%
ATL By 8-14 points
19.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
111.53
SAN ANTONIO
Atlanta
114.15
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Atlanta
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 19, 2025
SA @ ATL
126 - 98
Nov 20, 2025
ATL @ SA
126 - 135
Feb 5, 2025
SA @ ATL
126 - 125
Dec 19, 2024
ATL @ SA
126 - 133
Jan 15, 2024
SA @ ATL
99 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+8.6% more
Atlanta: 8.8
vs
San Antonio: 8.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Atlanta: 47.4%
vs
San Antonio: 45.7%
Rebounding (L5)
+13.5% more
San Antonio: 46.7
vs
Atlanta: 40.4
Assists (L5)
+10.4% more
San Antonio: 30.2
vs
Atlanta: 27.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
111.5
126
ATL Score
114.2
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 36.5
38.1 / 32.4
Assists
27.1 / 30.2
33.0 / 36.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.8
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 45.7
52.7 / 50.5
Free Throw %
76.4 / 75.1
72.2 / 75.0
Rebounding
40.4 / 46.7
45.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.8 / 8.1
5.0 / 16.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 15.7
20.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SA
ATL
SA
ML
50%
52-52
60%
111-73
55%
48-40
58%
61-44
ATS
53%
55-48-1
58%
107-76-1
55%
48-40
58%
61-44
TTL
53%
55-48-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
88-0
100%
105-0
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