NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
12-38 | Road
119
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
31-19 | Home
144
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
PELICANS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.1
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.1 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -7.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
NO By 1-7 points
15.1%
NO By 8-14 points
5.7%
DEN By 1-7 points
26.1%
DEN By 8-14 points
25.4%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
117.13
NEW ORLEANS
Denver
124.23
DENVER
Simulated Score
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Denver
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 241.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 13, 2026
DEN @ NO
122 - 116
Nov 19, 2025
DEN @ NO
125 - 118
Oct 29, 2025
NO @ DEN
88 - 122
Feb 5, 2025
NO @ DEN
119 - 144
Feb 3, 2025
NO @ DEN
113 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.2% more
Denver: 30.1
vs
New Orleans: 24.4
Blocks (L5)
+19.4% more
Denver: 5.8
vs
New Orleans: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.0%
Denver: 85.5%
vs
New Orleans: 78.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.5%
Denver: 51.8%
vs
New Orleans: 46.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
117.1
119
DEN Score
124.2
144
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 40.9
37.2 / 34.5
Assists
30.1 / 24.4
40.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.8 / 4.8
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.8 / 46.3
57.0 / 46.2
Free Throw %
85.5 / 78.5
93.3 / 88.5
Rebounding
43.6 / 42.5
51.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.5 / 7.7
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 12.8
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
NO
DEN
NO
ML
54%
57-48
62%
98-61
55%
47-39
58%
48-35
ATS
63%
65-38-2
68%
107-51-1
55%
47-39
58%
48-35
TTL
54%
56-48-1
75%
119-40
100%
86-0
100%
83-0
Contextual Game News
Luka Doncic Opens Up About Heartbreaking Season Away From His Da…
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…