SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
22-26 | Road
116
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
12-36 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
HORNETS
100%
SPURS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
27.4%
SA By 8-14 points
21.7%
CHA By 1-7 points
20.0%
CHA By 8-14 points
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
113
SAN ANTONIO
Charlotte
108.92
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Charlotte
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 221.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
CHA @ SA
102 - 115
Jan 31, 2026
SA @ CHA
106 - 111
Mar 14, 2025
CHA @ SA
145 - 134
Feb 7, 2025
SA @ CHA
116 - 117
Jan 19, 2024
SA @ CHA
120 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+46.3% more
San Antonio: 10.7
vs
Charlotte: 5.8
Blocks (L5)
+34.4% more
San Antonio: 4.2
vs
Charlotte: 2.8
Assists (L5)
+26.2% more
San Antonio: 32.2
vs
Charlotte: 23.7
Turnovers (L5)
+21.3% more
San Antonio: 13.8
vs
Charlotte: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
113.0
116
CHA Score
108.9
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 35.2
44.7 / 30.8
Assists
23.7 / 32.2
33.0 / 25.0
Blocks
2.8 / 4.2
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.0 / 47.3
46.5 / 45.7
Free Throw %
79.7 / 75.1
100.0 / 83.3
Rebounding
44.5 / 44.8
53.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.8 / 10.7
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 13.8
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
SA
CHA
SA
ML
61%
60-39
60%
111-73
48%
40-44
58%
61-44
ATS
60%
59-40
58%
107-76-1
48%
40-44
58%
61-44
TTL
58%
57-42
74%
134-47-3
100%
84-0
100%
105-0
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