Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hawks @ Wizards ATL @ WSH

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

24-28  |  Road

125
FINAL
Sat, Feb 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

9-42  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
📊
WIZARDS
0%
HAWKS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Washington)
HawksATL (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

39.6%

Wizards Cover

60.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSH -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

ATL By 1-7 points

22.2%

ATL By 8-14 points

11.2%

WSH By 1-7 points

27.1%

WSH By 8-14 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
105.28
ATLANTA
107.91
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
ATLANTA
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wizards Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wizards (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 213.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 WSH @ ATL 96 - 126
Feb 24, 2026 WSH @ ATL 98 - 119
Dec 6, 2025 ATL @ WSH 131 - 116
Nov 25, 2025 ATL @ WSH 113 - 132
Feb 8, 2025 ATL @ WSH 125 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +2.3%
Washington: 74.5% vs Atlanta: 72.2%
Blocks (L5) +30.7% more
Atlanta: 5.2 vs Washington: 3.6
Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
Atlanta: 49.1% vs Washington: 46.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 105.3 125
WSH Score 107.9 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.0 / 36.5 25.0 / 40.9
Assists 28.2 / 29.1 26.0 / 36.0
Blocks 3.6 / 5.2 2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 49.1 44.1 / 48.5
Free Throw % 74.5 / 72.2 95.2 / 76.5
Rebounding 42.8 / 45.3 53.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.8 / 7.0 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 14.7 18.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATL
WSH
ATL
ML
70% 112-49
50% 52-52
47% 39-44
55% 48-40
ATS
69% 111-49-1
53% 55-48-1
47% 39-44
55% 48-40
TTL
74% 119-41-1
53% 55-48-1
100% 83-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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