NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
12-39 | Road
118
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
25-26 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
KINGS
100%
PELICANS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.9
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 points (New Orleans)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO -5.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)
NO By 1-7 points
26.9%
NO By 8-14 points
24.1%
SAC By 1-7 points
17.1%
SAC By 8-14 points
7.0%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
117.81
NEW ORLEANS
Sacramento
111.93
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Sacramento
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 229.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
NO @ SAC
113 - 117
Mar 5, 2026
NO @ SAC
133 - 123
Feb 9, 2026
SAC @ NO
94 - 120
Feb 13, 2025
SAC @ NO
133 - 140
Feb 12, 2025
SAC @ NO
119 - 111
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
New Orleans: 38.8%
vs
Sacramento: 34.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.2%
New Orleans: 81.8%
vs
Sacramento: 78.7%
Blocks (L5)
+16.3% more
Sacramento: 4.9
vs
New Orleans: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
117.8
118
SAC Score
111.9
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 38.8
26.8 / 38.9
Assists
24.2 / 25.0
24.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.9 / 4.2
7.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 46.3
47.3 / 47.8
Free Throw %
78.7 / 81.8
78.8 / 72.0
Rebounding
43.4 / 41.0
51.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.0 / 6.8
10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 12.2
18.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
NO
SAC
NO
ML
55%
55-45
62%
98-61
61%
50-32
58%
48-35
ATS
54%
52-45-3
68%
107-51-1
61%
50-32
58%
48-35
TTL
58%
57-42-1
75%
119-40
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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