Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Thunder NO @ OKC

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

12-40  |  Road

101
FINAL
Mon, Feb 10 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

42-9  |  Home

137
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
PELICANS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Oklahoma City)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

1.4%

Thunder Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

NO By 1-7 points

1.1%

NO By 8-14 points

0.1%

OKC By 1-7 points

5.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
111.26
NEW ORLEANS
133.23
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 244.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 27, 2026 NO @ OKC 95 - 104
Nov 17, 2025 OKC @ NO 126 - 109
Nov 2, 2025 NO @ OKC 106 - 137
Apr 13, 2025 OKC @ NO 115 - 100
Feb 10, 2025 NO @ OKC 101 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +25.7% more
Oklahoma City: 50.7 vs New Orleans: 40.3
Free Throw % (L5) +4.2%
Oklahoma City: 82.8% vs New Orleans: 78.5%
Turnovers (L5) +21.0% more
New Orleans: 13.5 vs Oklahoma City: 10.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
New Orleans: 38.8% vs Oklahoma City: 35.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 111.3 101
OKC Score 133.2 137
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 38.8 49.1 / 37.0
Assists 27.4 / 25.6 29.0 / 19.0
Blocks 5.2 / 5.5 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 46.8 51.6 / 43.9
Free Throw % 82.8 / 78.5 75.0 / 67.9
Rebounding 50.7 / 40.3 45.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.5 / 8.6 15.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 13.5 11.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
NO
OKC
NO
ML
70% 80-34
62% 98-61
48% 46-49
58% 48-35
ATS
73% 83-30-1
68% 107-51-1
48% 46-49
58% 48-35
TTL
67% 76-38
75% 119-40
100% 95-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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