Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Pelicans SAC @ NO

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

27-26  |  Road

119
FINAL
Wed, Feb 12 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

12-41  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
KINGS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.1
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.1 points (New Orleans)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

23.7%

Pelicans Cover

76.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -7.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

SAC By 1-7 points

15.1%

SAC By 8-14 points

5.6%

NO By 1-7 points

26.1%

NO By 8-14 points

25.5%

AI Model Projected Score
110.84
SACRAMENTO
117.99
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
SACRAMENTO
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 3, 2026 NO @ SAC 113 - 117
Mar 5, 2026 NO @ SAC 133 - 123
Feb 9, 2026 SAC @ NO 94 - 120
Feb 13, 2025 SAC @ NO 133 - 140
Feb 12, 2025 SAC @ NO 119 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +10.9% more
New Orleans: 7.0 vs Sacramento: 6.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
New Orleans: 38.2% vs Sacramento: 32.7%
Rebounding (L5) +13.5% more
Sacramento: 47.3 vs New Orleans: 40.9
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Sacramento: 49.3% vs New Orleans: 45.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 110.8 119
NO Score 118.0 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.2 / 32.7 25.0 / 35.6
Assists 23.4 / 25.4 28.0 / 28.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.7 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 49.3 46.8 / 47.1
Free Throw % 75.0 / 77.0 83.3 / 72.4
Rebounding 40.9 / 47.3 40.0 / 48.0
Steals 7.0 / 6.4 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 16.6 / 16.8 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
NO Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
SAC
NO
SAC
ML
62% 98-61
55% 55-45
58% 48-35
61% 50-32
ATS
68% 107-51-1
54% 52-45-3
58% 48-35
61% 50-32
TTL
75% 119-40
58% 57-42-1
100% 83-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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