Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Mavericks GS @ DAL

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

27-26  |  Road

107
FINAL
Wed, Feb 12 • 9:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

28-26  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
WARRIORS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Dallas)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

39.3%

Mavericks Cover

60.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

GS By 1-7 points

22.0%

GS By 8-14 points

11.1%

DAL By 1-7 points

27.1%

DAL By 8-14 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
116.75
GOLDEN STATE
119.46
DALLAS
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 236.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 GS @ DAL 137 - 131
Jan 22, 2026 GS @ DAL 115 - 123
Dec 25, 2025 DAL @ GS 116 - 126
Feb 23, 2025 DAL @ GS 102 - 126
Feb 12, 2025 GS @ DAL 107 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +113.1% more
Dallas: 7.6 vs Golden State: 3.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.4%
Dallas: 41.6% vs Golden State: 33.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Dallas: 49.4% vs Golden State: 44.8%
Steals (L5) +26.6% more
Golden State: 10.6 vs Dallas: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 116.8 107
DAL Score 119.5 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.6 / 33.2 41.7 / 28.6
Assists 27.2 / 29.5 20.0 / 29.0
Blocks 7.6 / 3.6 7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 44.8 48.3 / 42.7
Free Throw % 72.8 / 77.1 80.0 / 83.3
Rebounding 39.3 / 44.7 39.0 / 50.0
Steals 7.8 / 10.6 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 11.5 15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
GS
DAL
GS
ML
62% 63-39
55% 95-79
54% 44-37
58% 49-35
ATS
67% 68-34
58% 101-73
54% 44-37
58% 49-35
TTL
59% 60-41-1
77% 134-40
100% 81-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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