GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
27-27 | Road
105
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
34-20 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
ROCKETS
100%
WARRIORS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.8
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.8 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -6.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
GS By 1-7 points
26.3%
GS By 8-14 points
25.2%
HOU By 1-7 points
15.6%
HOU By 8-14 points
5.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
114.97
GOLDEN STATE
Houston
108.12
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Houston
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 223.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
HOU @ GS
117 - 116
Mar 5, 2026
GS @ HOU
115 - 113
Nov 26, 2025
HOU @ GS
104 - 100
May 4, 2025
GS @ HOU
103 - 89
May 2, 2025
HOU @ GS
115 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+20.2% more
Golden State: 10.1
vs
Houston: 8.0
Assists (L5)
+15.9% more
Golden State: 29.4
vs
Houston: 24.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.7%
Golden State: 79.2%
vs
Houston: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
115.0
105
HOU Score
108.1
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 31.7
33.3 / 26.8
Assists
24.7 / 29.4
24.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.5 / 4.4
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 44.1
40.9 / 39.3
Free Throw %
70.5 / 79.2
55.6 / 88.9
Rebounding
48.6 / 46.4
52.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.0 / 10.1
7.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 13.0
20.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU
Advantage
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
GS
HOU
GS
ML
61%
69-44
55%
95-79
59%
51-35
58%
49-35
ATS
62%
70-43
58%
101-73
59%
51-35
58%
49-35
TTL
51%
58-55
77%
134-40
100%
86-0
100%
84-0
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…