Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Mavericks NO @ DAL

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

13-42  |  Road

103
FINAL
Fri, Feb 21 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

30-26  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
PELICANS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.6
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.6 points (Dallas)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

17.0%

Mavericks Cover

83.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -9.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

NO By 1-7 points

11.3%

NO By 8-14 points

3.6%

DAL By 1-7 points

23.6%

DAL By 8-14 points

27.1%

AI Model Projected Score
109.81
NEW ORLEANS
119.37
DALLAS
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 229.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 16, 2026 DAL @ NO 111 - 129
Dec 22, 2025 DAL @ NO 113 - 119
Nov 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 115 - 118
Nov 5, 2025 NO @ DAL 101 - 99
Feb 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 103 - 111
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Dallas: 39.8% vs New Orleans: 36.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Dallas: 49.7% vs New Orleans: 47.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 109.8 103
DAL Score 119.4 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 36.5 36.4 / 29.6
Assists 25.9 / 27.3 28.0 / 25.0
Blocks 5.6 / 5.7 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.7 / 47.4 43.0 / 41.3
Free Throw % 77.2 / 78.3 77.8 / 76.0
Rebounding 39.5 / 42.1 47.0 / 53.0
Steals 7.8 / 8.4 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 12.7 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
NO
DAL
NO
ML
62% 63-39
62% 98-61
54% 44-37
58% 48-35
ATS
67% 68-34
68% 107-51-1
54% 44-37
58% 48-35
TTL
59% 60-41-1
75% 119-40
100% 81-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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