Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Jazz OKC @ UTAH

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

44-10  |  Road

130
FINAL
Fri, Feb 21 • 9:30 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

13-41  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
JAZZ
100%
THUNDER --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.6
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

77.5%

Jazz Cover

22.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -7.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

25.7%

OKC By 8-14 points

25.9%

UTAH By 1-7 points

14.4%

UTAH By 8-14 points

5.2%

AI Model Projected Score
122.35
OKLAHOMA CITY
114.78
UTAH
Simulated Score
OKLAHOMA CITY
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 237.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 UTAH @ OKC 111 - 146
Jan 7, 2026 UTAH @ OKC 125 - 129
Dec 7, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 131 - 101
Nov 21, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 144 - 112
Apr 11, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 145 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +29.0% more
Oklahoma City: 5.7 vs Utah: 4.1
Steals (L5) +13.6% more
Oklahoma City: 8.3 vs Utah: 7.2
Turnovers (L5) +72.3% more
Utah: 19.0 vs Oklahoma City: 11.0
Free Throw % (L5) +3.8%
Utah: 82.8% vs Oklahoma City: 79.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 122.4 130
UTAH Score 114.8 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 34.5 36.6 / 44.2
Assists 26.8 / 25.6 27.0 / 38.0
Blocks 4.1 / 5.7 2.0 / 10.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 46.7 45.6 / 47.4
Free Throw % 82.8 / 79.0 55.6 / 95.0
Rebounding 46.3 / 47.1 43.0 / 51.0
Steals 7.2 / 8.3 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 19.0 / 11.0 21.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
OKC
UTAH
OKC
ML
60% 96-63
70% 80-34
48% 40-43
48% 46-49
ATS
68% 108-51
73% 83-30-1
48% 40-43
48% 46-49
TTL
75% 119-39-1
67% 76-38
100% 83-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 6 hours, 36 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Blame for Thunder's Game 7 Loss, B…
bleacherreport 6 hours, 43 minutes ago
Brooks Barnhizer Shines in Thunder Preseason Debut, Sparks Hope …
si 1 day, 18 hours ago
Thunder's Young Core Shines in Preseason Loss to Pelicans
yahoo 1 day, 18 hours ago
Nuggets' Bench Sparks 117-106 Preseason Win Over Jazz, Led by Di…
si 1 day, 18 hours ago