HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
35-21 | Road
115
UTAH
JAZZUTAH
13-42 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
JAZZ
0%
ROCKETS
--
JAZZ
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)
HOU By 1-7 points
25.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
15.1%
UTAH By 1-7 points
25.5%
UTAH By 8-14 points
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
110.79
HOUSTON
Utah
110.91
UTAH
Simulated Score
Houston
HOUSTON
Utah
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jazz
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jazz (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 221.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
UTAH @ HOU
106 - 140
Feb 23, 2026
UTAH @ HOU
105 - 125
Dec 1, 2025
HOU @ UTAH
125 - 133
Nov 30, 2025
HOU @ UTAH
129 - 101
Oct 8, 2025
UTAH @ HOU
127 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+20.5% more
Utah: 26.9
vs
Houston: 22.3
Turnovers (L5)
+17.4% more
Utah: 19.6
vs
Houston: 16.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.0%
Utah: 73.7%
vs
Houston: 68.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Utah: 47.5%
vs
Houston: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
110.8
115
UTAH Score
110.9
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.4 / 37.8
32.5 / 39.5
Assists
26.9 / 22.3
28.0 / 33.0
Blocks
3.4 / 5.1
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 44.9
50.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
73.7 / 68.7
48.1 / 55.6
Rebounding
45.2 / 49.1
58.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.8
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
19.6 / 16.7
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
HOU
UTAH
HOU
ML
60%
96-63
61%
69-44
48%
40-43
59%
51-35
ATS
68%
108-51
62%
70-43
48%
40-43
59%
51-35
TTL
75%
119-39-1
51%
58-55
100%
83-0
100%
86-0
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