SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
24-31 | Road
103
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
14-43 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
PELICANS
0%
SPURS
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (New Orleans)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)
SA By 1-7 points
24.0%
SA By 8-14 points
13.4%
NO By 1-7 points
26.4%
NO By 8-14 points
17.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
112.39
SAN ANTONIO
New Orleans
113.61
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 25, 2026
NO @ SA
104 - 95
Dec 8, 2025
SA @ NO
135 - 132
Nov 8, 2025
NO @ SA
119 - 126
Oct 24, 2025
SA @ NO
120 - 116
Mar 15, 2025
NO @ SA
115 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+31.1% more
New Orleans: 53.5
vs
San Antonio: 40.8
Turnovers (L5)
+20.5% more
New Orleans: 14.4
vs
San Antonio: 12.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.8%
New Orleans: 76.1%
vs
San Antonio: 72.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
New Orleans: 45.2%
vs
San Antonio: 43.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
112.4
103
NO Score
113.6
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 33.0
22.6 / 29.5
Assists
26.7 / 28.7
25.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.9 / 5.1
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 43.5
43.6 / 40.9
Free Throw %
76.1 / 72.3
80.0 / 77.8
Rebounding
53.5 / 40.8
54.0 / 45.0
Steals
6.5 / 11.0
11.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
14.4 / 12.0
19.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
NO
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
SA
NO
SA
ML
62%
98-61
60%
111-73
58%
48-35
58%
61-44
ATS
68%
107-51-1
58%
107-76-1
58%
48-35
58%
61-44
TTL
75%
119-40
74%
134-47-3
100%
83-0
100%
105-0
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