Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hornets @ Warriors CHA @ GS

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

14-42  |  Road

92
FINAL
Tue, Feb 25 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

30-27  |  Home

128
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
HORNETS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.1
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.1 points (Golden State)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

11.3%

Warriors Cover

88.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -12.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

CHA By 1-7 points

7.8%

CHA By 8-14 points

2.1%

GS By 1-7 points

19.9%

GS By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
100.88
CHARLOTTE
113.01
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
CHARLOTTE
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 213.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 CHA @ GS 116 - 136
Dec 31, 2025 GS @ CHA 132 - 125
Mar 3, 2025 GS @ CHA 119 - 101
Feb 25, 2025 CHA @ GS 92 - 128
Mar 29, 2024 GS @ CHA 115 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +37.8% more
Golden State: 31.4 vs Charlotte: 22.8
Rebounding (L5) +13.5% more
Golden State: 45.8 vs Charlotte: 40.3
Blocks (L5) +11.0% more
Golden State: 4.9 vs Charlotte: 4.4
Field Goal % (L5) +9.1%
Golden State: 46.9% vs Charlotte: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 100.9 92
GS Score 113.0 128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 27.6 35.7 / 27.5
Assists 31.4 / 22.8 40.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.9 / 4.4 5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 37.8 49.0 / 37.1
Free Throw % 87.8 / 79.0 83.3 / 83.3
Rebounding 45.8 / 40.3 51.0 / 50.0
Steals 11.1 / 11.1 16.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 16.1 12.0 / 25.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA Advantage
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
CHA
GS
CHA
ML
55% 95-79
61% 60-39
58% 49-35
48% 40-44
ATS
58% 101-73
60% 59-40
58% 49-35
48% 40-44
TTL
77% 134-40
58% 57-42
100% 84-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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