Home / NBA Projections NBA / Spurs @ Rockets SA @ HOU

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

24-32  |  Road

106
FINAL
Wed, Feb 26 • 9:30 PM ET
Toyota Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

36-22  |  Home

118
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
SPURS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.1
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.1 points (Houston)
SpursSA (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

11.3%

Rockets Cover

88.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -12.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

SA By 1-7 points

7.9%

SA By 8-14 points

2.1%

HOU By 1-7 points

19.9%

HOU By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
104.1
SAN ANTONIO
116.22
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
SAN ANTONIO
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 220.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 HOU @ SA 120 - 145
Jan 28, 2026 SA @ HOU 111 - 99
Jan 20, 2026 SA @ HOU 106 - 111
Nov 7, 2025 HOU @ SA 110 - 121
Feb 26, 2025 SA @ HOU 106 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +21.7% more
Houston: 5.7 vs San Antonio: 4.7
Rebounding (L5) +15.3% more
Houston: 48.6 vs San Antonio: 42.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
Houston: 37.0% vs San Antonio: 31.8%
Steals (L5) +52.5% more
San Antonio: 12.0 vs Houston: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 104.1 106
HOU Score 116.2 118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.0 / 31.8 28.9 / 17.9
Assists 23.3 / 28.8 22.0 / 28.0
Blocks 5.7 / 4.7 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 42.7 47.1 / 42.0
Free Throw % 68.8 / 74.1 78.6 / 71.4
Rebounding 48.6 / 42.2 60.0 / 41.0
Steals 5.7 / 12.0 4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 14.7 16.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SA
HOU
SA
ML
61% 69-44
60% 111-73
59% 51-35
58% 61-44
ATS
62% 70-43
58% 107-76-1
59% 51-35
58% 61-44
TTL
51% 58-55
74% 134-47-3
100% 86-0
100% 105-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
nypost 1 hour, 59 minutes ago
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 2 hours, 8 minutes ago
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 2 hours, 16 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 8 hours ago
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
si 8 hours, 4 minutes ago