NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
15-43 | Road
124
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
27-31 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
SUNS
0%
PELICANS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
NO By 1-7 points
23.4%
NO By 8-14 points
12.6%
PHX By 1-7 points
26.7%
PHX By 8-14 points
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
110.33
NEW ORLEANS
Phoenix
112.02
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Phoenix
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
NO @ PHX
116 - 118
Dec 27, 2025
PHX @ NO
123 - 114
Dec 26, 2025
PHX @ NO
115 - 108
Nov 10, 2025
NO @ PHX
98 - 121
Feb 28, 2025
NO @ PHX
108 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+16.8% more
Phoenix: 30.5
vs
New Orleans: 26.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.9%
Phoenix: 40.0%
vs
New Orleans: 30.1%
Blocks (L5)
+9.6% more
Phoenix: 5.7
vs
New Orleans: 5.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.5%
Phoenix: 50.1%
vs
New Orleans: 44.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
110.3
124
PHX Score
112.0
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.0 / 30.1
37.7 / 36.2
Assists
30.5 / 26.1
29.0 / 25.0
Blocks
5.7 / 5.2
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
50.1 / 44.6
46.8 / 48.1
Free Throw %
81.1 / 77.4
80.0 / 58.3
Rebounding
43.1 / 53.7
52.0 / 50.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.0
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 16.0
11.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
NO
PHX
NO
ML
57%
60-45
62%
98-61
51%
45-43
58%
48-35
ATS
58%
59-43-3
68%
107-51-1
51%
45-43
58%
48-35
TTL
59%
61-42-2
75%
119-40
100%
88-0
100%
83-0
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