Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Suns NO @ PHX

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

16-43  |  Road

108
FINAL
Fri, Feb 28 • 9:00 PM ET
PHX Arena
View Odds Details →

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

27-32  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
SUNS
0%
PELICANS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Phoenix)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

44.8%

Suns Cover

55.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

NO By 1-7 points

23.9%

NO By 8-14 points

13.2%

PHX By 1-7 points

26.4%

PHX By 8-14 points

17.4%

AI Model Projected Score
110.29
NEW ORLEANS
111.59
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Suns Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Suns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 221.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 NO @ PHX 116 - 118
Dec 27, 2025 PHX @ NO 123 - 114
Dec 26, 2025 PHX @ NO 115 - 108
Nov 10, 2025 NO @ PHX 98 - 121
Feb 28, 2025 NO @ PHX 108 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +16.5% more
Phoenix: 30.0 vs New Orleans: 25.8
Free Throw % (L5) +9.7%
Phoenix: 80.7% vs New Orleans: 71.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
Phoenix: 39.2% vs New Orleans: 32.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Phoenix: 49.0% vs New Orleans: 45.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 110.3 108
PHX Score 111.6 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 32.2 52.5 / 39.3
Assists 30.0 / 25.8 35.0 / 28.0
Blocks 5.8 / 5.5 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 45.8 59.5 / 50.6
Free Throw % 80.7 / 71.0 76.9 / 60.0
Rebounding 46.1 / 52.4 35.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.0 / 6.3 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 12.6 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
NO
PHX
NO
ML
57% 60-45
62% 98-61
51% 45-43
58% 48-35
ATS
58% 59-43-3
68% 107-51-1
51% 45-43
58% 48-35
TTL
59% 61-42-2
75% 119-40
100% 88-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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