Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Jazz NO @ UTAH

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

16-44  |  Road

128
FINAL
Sun, Mar 2 • 8:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

15-44  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
📊
JAZZ
100%
PELICANS --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New Orleans)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

57.8%

Jazz Cover

42.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

NO By 1-7 points

26.8%

NO By 8-14 points

18.5%

UTAH By 1-7 points

23.1%

UTAH By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
113.52
NEW ORLEANS
111.55
UTAH
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 225.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 7, 2026 UTAH @ NO 137 - 156
Feb 28, 2026 NO @ UTAH 115 - 105
Feb 26, 2026 NO @ UTAH 129 - 118
Mar 2, 2025 NO @ UTAH 128 - 121
Jan 20, 2025 UTAH @ NO 119 - 123
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +34.8% more
New Orleans: 4.7 vs Utah: 3.0
Steals (L5) +22.6% more
New Orleans: 7.6 vs Utah: 5.8
Free Throw % (L5) +2.4%
New Orleans: 67.3% vs Utah: 65.0%
Turnovers (L5) +17.6% more
Utah: 15.8 vs New Orleans: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 113.5 128
UTAH Score 111.6 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 34.5 36.4 / 34.1
Assists 30.4 / 26.5 35.0 / 35.0
Blocks 3.0 / 4.7 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 47.4 47.9 / 52.0
Free Throw % 65.0 / 67.3 76.5 / 53.8
Rebounding 48.9 / 46.6 41.0 / 48.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.6 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 13.4 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
NO
UTAH
NO
ML
60% 96-63
62% 98-61
48% 40-43
58% 48-35
ATS
68% 108-51
68% 107-51-1
48% 40-43
58% 48-35
TTL
75% 119-39-1
75% 119-40
100% 83-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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