GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
32-28 | Road
119
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
14-45 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
HORNETS
100%
WARRIORS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.2
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.2 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -13.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
GS By 1-7 points
18.2%
GS By 8-14 points
26.7%
CHA By 1-7 points
6.6%
CHA By 8-14 points
1.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
114.16
GOLDEN STATE
Charlotte
100.96
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Charlotte
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 215.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
CHA @ GS
116 - 136
Dec 31, 2025
GS @ CHA
132 - 125
Mar 3, 2025
GS @ CHA
119 - 101
Feb 25, 2025
CHA @ GS
92 - 128
Mar 29, 2024
GS @ CHA
115 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+24.0% more
Golden State: 32.0
vs
Charlotte: 24.3
Steals (L5)
+18.3% more
Golden State: 9.8
vs
Charlotte: 8.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.9%
Golden State: 84.3%
vs
Charlotte: 73.4%
Blocks (L5)
+9.5% more
Golden State: 5.1
vs
Charlotte: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
114.2
119
CHA Score
101.0
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.1 / 34.2
27.5 / 36.0
Assists
24.3 / 32.0
20.0 / 33.0
Blocks
4.6 / 5.1
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
40.5 / 46.6
39.5 / 42.1
Free Throw %
73.4 / 84.3
66.7 / 87.5
Rebounding
46.5 / 45.9
47.0 / 54.0
Steals
8.0 / 9.8
3.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
17.5 / 13.3
17.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
GS
CHA
GS
ML
61%
60-39
55%
95-79
48%
40-44
58%
49-35
ATS
60%
59-40
58%
101-73
48%
40-44
58%
49-35
TTL
58%
57-42
77%
134-40
100%
84-0
100%
84-0
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