WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
11-48 | Road
90
MIAMI
HEATMIA
28-31 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
HEAT
0%
WIZARDS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.9
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -3.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
WSH By 1-7 points
20.2%
WSH By 8-14 points
9.4%
MIA By 1-7 points
27.4%
MIA By 8-14 points
21.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
107.97
WASHINGTON
Miami
111.9
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Washington
WASHINGTON
Miami
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
MIA @ WSH
140 - 117
Apr 4, 2026
WSH @ MIA
136 - 152
Mar 10, 2026
WSH @ MIA
129 - 150
Feb 8, 2026
MIA @ WSH
132 - 101
Apr 13, 2025
WSH @ MIA
119 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Miami: 51.6%
vs
Washington: 47.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
Miami: 38.3%
vs
Washington: 34.6%
Blocks (L5)
+34.8% more
Washington: 6.5
vs
Miami: 4.3
Steals (L5)
+27.9% more
Washington: 9.2
vs
Miami: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
108.0
90
MIA Score
111.9
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 34.6
35.1 / 28.6
Assists
29.1 / 27.9
31.0 / 22.0
Blocks
4.3 / 6.5
4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
51.6 / 47.0
47.6 / 36.9
Free Throw %
80.5 / 83.9
83.3 / 81.8
Rebounding
38.5 / 42.9
48.0 / 43.0
Steals
6.6 / 9.2
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 17.8
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48%
46-50
70%
112-49
59%
48-34
47%
39-44
ATS
51%
49-47
69%
111-49-1
59%
48-34
47%
39-44
TTL
59%
57-39
74%
119-41-1
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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