Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Lakers NO @ LAL

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

17-44  |  Road

115
FINAL
Tue, Mar 4 • 10:30 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

38-21  |  Home

136
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
PELICANS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.6
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.6 points (Los Angeles)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

28.8%

Lakers Cover

71.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -5.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

NO By 1-7 points

17.6%

NO By 8-14 points

7.3%

LAL By 1-7 points

27.0%

LAL By 8-14 points

23.8%

AI Model Projected Score
111.23
NEW ORLEANS
116.82
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 NO @ LAL 101 - 110
Jan 6, 2026 LAL @ NO 111 - 103
Nov 30, 2025 NO @ LAL 121 - 133
Nov 14, 2025 LAL @ NO 118 - 104
Apr 4, 2025 NO @ LAL 108 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +22.6% more
Los Angeles: 9.4 vs New Orleans: 7.7
Turnovers (L5) +21.3% more
Los Angeles: 15.3 vs New Orleans: 12.6
Blocks (L5) +12.4% more
Los Angeles: 5.4 vs New Orleans: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5) +11.4%
Los Angeles: 74.2% vs New Orleans: 62.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 111.2 115
LAL Score 116.8 136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 34.4 36.5 / 26.5
Assists 21.9 / 29.3 32.0 / 29.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.8 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 48.9 53.3 / 49.5
Free Throw % 74.2 / 62.8 77.8 / 66.7
Rebounding 44.4 / 47.1 51.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.4 / 7.7 7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 12.6 15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
NO
LAL
NO
ML
61% 68-43
62% 98-61
54% 49-42
58% 48-35
ATS
61% 67-43-1
68% 107-51-1
54% 49-42
58% 48-35
TTL
61% 66-43-2
75% 119-40
100% 91-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 1 hour, 30 minutes ago
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 1 hour, 39 minutes ago
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
si 7 hours, 18 minutes ago
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…
yahoo 7 hours, 29 minutes ago
Phillies' 2027 Forecast: Four Farmhands Ready to Step Up
si 13 hours, 46 minutes ago