Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Pelicans HOU @ NO

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

37-25  |  Road

109
FINAL
Thu, Mar 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

17-45  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
ROCKETS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (New Orleans)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

48.4%

Pelicans Cover

51.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

HOU By 1-7 points

24.9%

HOU By 8-14 points

14.6%

NO By 1-7 points

25.7%

NO By 8-14 points

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
110.92
HOUSTON
111.33
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
HOUSTON
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 HOU @ NO 134 - 102
Mar 13, 2026 NO @ HOU 105 - 107
Jan 18, 2026 NO @ HOU 110 - 119
Dec 18, 2025 HOU @ NO 128 - 133
Oct 14, 2025 HOU @ NO 130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +39.0% more
New Orleans: 8.8 vs Houston: 6.3
Assists (L5) +37.8% more
New Orleans: 29.2 vs Houston: 21.2
Blocks (L5) +20.5% more
New Orleans: 4.2 vs Houston: 3.5
Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
New Orleans: 49.1% vs Houston: 44.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 110.9 109
NO Score 111.3 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.8 / 35.8 33.3 / 31.0
Assists 29.2 / 21.2 17.0 / 33.0
Blocks 4.2 / 3.5 7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 44.0 37.3 / 56.8
Free Throw % 64.1 / 66.6 78.8 / 44.4
Rebounding 43.1 / 52.1 41.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.8 / 6.3 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 15.1 15.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
HOU
NO
HOU
ML
62% 98-61
61% 69-44
58% 48-35
59% 51-35
ATS
68% 107-51-1
62% 70-43
58% 48-35
59% 51-35
TTL
75% 119-40
51% 58-55
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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