Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Rockets NO @ HOU

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

17-46  |  Road

117
FINAL
Sat, Mar 8 • 7:00 PM ET
Toyota Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

38-25  |  Home

146
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
PELICANS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Houston)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

19.7%

Rockets Cover

80.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

NO By 1-7 points

12.9%

NO By 8-14 points

4.4%

HOU By 1-7 points

24.8%

HOU By 8-14 points

26.6%

AI Model Projected Score
106.46
NEW ORLEANS
115
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 221.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 HOU @ NO 134 - 102
Mar 13, 2026 NO @ HOU 105 - 107
Jan 18, 2026 NO @ HOU 110 - 119
Dec 18, 2025 HOU @ NO 128 - 133
Oct 14, 2025 HOU @ NO 130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +29.9% more
Houston: 16.4 vs New Orleans: 12.6
Rebounding (L5) +14.3% more
Houston: 48.4 vs New Orleans: 42.4
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Houston: 48.2% vs New Orleans: 45.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Houston: 34.2% vs New Orleans: 32.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 106.5 117
HOU Score 115.0 146
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 32.3 42.5 / 35.3
Assists 25.1 / 25.2 32.0 / 29.0
Blocks 4.3 / 5.1 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 45.2 55.6 / 48.5
Free Throw % 59.2 / 69.0 90.5 / 56.3
Rebounding 48.4 / 42.4 48.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.6 / 8.9 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.4 / 12.6 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
NO
HOU
NO
ML
61% 69-44
62% 98-61
59% 51-35
58% 48-35
ATS
62% 70-43
68% 107-51-1
59% 51-35
58% 48-35
TTL
51% 58-55
75% 119-40
100% 86-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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