Home / NBA Projections NBA / Wizards @ Raptors WSH @ TOR

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

12-49  |  Road

118
FINAL
Sat, Mar 8 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

21-42  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
📊
RAPTORS
0%
WIZARDS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 points (Toronto)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

30.5%

Raptors Cover

69.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -5.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

WSH By 1-7 points

18.4%

WSH By 8-14 points

7.9%

TOR By 1-7 points

27.2%

TOR By 8-14 points

23.1%

AI Model Projected Score
104.81
WASHINGTON
109.9
TORONTO
Simulated Score
WASHINGTON
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Raptors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Raptors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 214.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 TOR @ WSH 134 - 125
Dec 26, 2025 TOR @ WSH 117 - 138
Nov 21, 2025 WSH @ TOR 110 - 140
Oct 12, 2025 TOR @ WSH 113 - 112
Mar 24, 2025 TOR @ WSH 112 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +9.1% more
Toronto: 15.1 vs Washington: 13.8
Blocks (L5) +30.9% more
Washington: 6.9 vs Toronto: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5) +4.4%
Washington: 83.0% vs Toronto: 78.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 104.8 118
TOR Score 109.9 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 33.8 38.5 / 34.2
Assists 26.5 / 27.9 24.0 / 29.0
Blocks 4.8 / 6.9 6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 43.8 42.1 / 44.0
Free Throw % 78.7 / 83.0 90.0 / 73.9
Rebounding 46.0 / 43.6 49.0 / 50.0
Steals 9.1 / 8.9 11.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 13.8 15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
WSH
TOR
WSH
ML
55% 57-47
70% 112-49
55% 48-39
47% 39-44
ATS
61% 62-40-2
69% 111-49-1
55% 48-39
47% 39-44
TTL
60% 62-42
74% 119-41-1
100% 87-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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