MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
39-24 | Road
107
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
17-47 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
PELICANS
100%
GRIZZLIES
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MEM By 1-7 points
27.4%
MEM By 8-14 points
21.9%
NO By 1-7 points
19.8%
NO By 8-14 points
9.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
116.6
MEMPHIS
New Orleans
112.41
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Memphis
MEMPHIS
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
MEM @ NO
106 - 114
Jan 23, 2026
NO @ MEM
133 - 127
Nov 26, 2025
MEM @ NO
133 - 128
Oct 22, 2025
NO @ MEM
122 - 128
Mar 9, 2025
MEM @ NO
107 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+31.1% more
Memphis: 6.4
vs
New Orleans: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+23.5%
Memphis: 88.3%
vs
New Orleans: 64.8%
Rebounding (L5)
+14.9% more
Memphis: 50.4
vs
New Orleans: 42.9
Turnovers (L5)
+10.2% more
Memphis: 14.6
vs
New Orleans: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
116.6
107
NO Score
112.4
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 33.0
38.2 / 26.5
Assists
26.4 / 27.9
24.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.4 / 6.4
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 46.8
41.2 / 41.4
Free Throw %
64.8 / 88.3
77.8 / 63.2
Rebounding
42.9 / 50.4
39.0 / 57.0
Steals
8.2 / 7.9
5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 14.6
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
NO
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
MEM
NO
MEM
ML
62%
98-61
57%
59-44
58%
48-35
50%
41-41
ATS
68%
107-51-1
63%
65-38
58%
48-35
50%
41-41
TTL
75%
119-40
70%
71-31-1
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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