Home / NBA Projections NBA / Wizards @ Raptors WSH @ TOR

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

13-49  |  Road

104
FINAL
Mon, Mar 10 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

21-43  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
📊
RAPTORS
0%
WIZARDS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.9
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 points (Toronto)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

31.2%

Raptors Cover

68.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -4.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

WSH By 1-7 points

18.7%

WSH By 8-14 points

8.1%

TOR By 1-7 points

27.3%

TOR By 8-14 points

22.9%

AI Model Projected Score
105.15
WASHINGTON
110.06
TORONTO
Simulated Score
WASHINGTON
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Raptors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Raptors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 215.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 TOR @ WSH 134 - 125
Dec 26, 2025 TOR @ WSH 117 - 138
Nov 21, 2025 WSH @ TOR 110 - 140
Oct 12, 2025 TOR @ WSH 113 - 112
Mar 24, 2025 TOR @ WSH 112 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +2.5%
Toronto: 82.5% vs Washington: 80.0%
Blocks (L5) +25.3% more
Washington: 6.9 vs Toronto: 5.2
Assists (L5) +9.3% more
Washington: 28.3 vs Toronto: 25.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 105.2 104
TOR Score 110.1 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 33.9 32.7 / 29.1
Assists 25.7 / 28.3 26.0 / 25.0
Blocks 5.2 / 6.9 2.0 / 12.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 43.9 39.5 / 36.2
Free Throw % 82.5 / 80.0 58.6 / 80.0
Rebounding 47.0 / 45.7 73.0 / 54.0
Steals 9.7 / 9.9 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 14.5 9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
WSH
TOR
WSH
ML
55% 57-47
70% 112-49
55% 48-39
47% 39-44
ATS
61% 62-40-2
69% 111-49-1
55% 48-39
47% 39-44
TTL
60% 62-42
74% 119-41-1
100% 87-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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