DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
32-33 | Road
133
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
26-36 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
SPURS
100%
MAVERICKS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.9
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -3.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1-7 points
27.4%
DAL By 8-14 points
21.5%
SA By 1-7 points
20.3%
SA By 8-14 points
9.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
112.27
DALLAS
San Antonio
108.35
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Dallas
DALLAS
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
DAL @ SA
120 - 139
Feb 7, 2026
DAL @ SA
125 - 138
Feb 5, 2026
SA @ DAL
135 - 123
Oct 22, 2025
SA @ DAL
125 - 92
Mar 12, 2025
DAL @ SA
116 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.5%
Dallas: 77.7%
vs
San Antonio: 68.2%
Turnovers (L5)
+15.4% more
San Antonio: 11.8
vs
Dallas: 10.2
Assists (L5)
+9.6% more
San Antonio: 29.6
vs
Dallas: 27.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.4%
San Antonio: 51.3%
vs
Dallas: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
112.3
133
SA Score
108.4
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.8 / 35.8
41.5 / 31.6
Assists
29.6 / 27.0
29.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.7 / 3.7
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
51.3 / 44.9
52.1 / 53.4
Free Throw %
68.2 / 77.7
58.3 / 90.0
Rebounding
38.5 / 36.8
38.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.8 / 8.3
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 10.2
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
DAL
SA
DAL
ML
60%
111-73
62%
63-39
58%
61-44
54%
44-37
ATS
58%
107-76-1
67%
68-34
58%
61-44
54%
44-37
TTL
74%
134-47-3
59%
60-41-1
100%
105-0
100%
81-0
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