PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
28-37 | Road
120
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
36-28 | Home
130
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
WARRIORS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.9
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.9 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -11.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
POR By 1-7 points
8.1%
POR By 8-14 points
2.2%
GS By 1-7 points
20.3%
GS By 8-14 points
27.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
114.75
PORTLAND
Golden State
126.66
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Portland
PORTLAND
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 241.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 13, 2026
POR @ GS
97 - 119
Dec 14, 2025
GS @ POR
131 - 136
Nov 21, 2025
POR @ GS
127 - 123
Oct 24, 2025
GS @ POR
119 - 139
Oct 14, 2025
GS @ POR
118 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+49.2% more
Golden State: 29.6
vs
Portland: 19.8
Steals (L5)
+28.3% more
Golden State: 8.6
vs
Portland: 6.7
Blocks (L5)
+17.1% more
Golden State: 4.7
vs
Portland: 4.0
Turnovers (L5)
+10.4% more
Golden State: 15.6
vs
Portland: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
114.8
120
GS Score
126.7
130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 30.4
51.2 / 42.9
Assists
29.6 / 19.8
35.0 / 31.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.0
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 42.3
52.9 / 48.4
Free Throw %
83.9 / 76.3
90.5 / 82.4
Rebounding
46.3 / 46.0
40.0 / 43.0
Steals
8.6 / 6.7
16.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
15.6 / 14.1
18.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
Advantage
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
POR
GS
POR
ML
55%
95-79
53%
56-49
58%
49-35
55%
49-40
ATS
58%
101-73
62%
65-39-1
58%
49-35
55%
49-40
TTL
77%
134-40
56%
58-46-1
100%
84-0
100%
89-0
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…