ORLANDO
MAGICORL
30-36 | Road
113
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
18-48 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
0%
PELICANS
100%
MAGIC
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.3
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.3 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORL -4.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
ORL By 1-7 points
27.4%
ORL By 8-14 points
22.1%
NO By 1-7 points
19.6%
NO By 8-14 points
8.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
111.84
ORLANDO
New Orleans
107.5
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Orlando
ORLANDO
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Magic (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
ORL @ NO
112 - 108
Jan 11, 2026
NO @ ORL
118 - 128
Oct 16, 2025
NO @ ORL
125 - 132
Mar 13, 2025
ORL @ NO
113 - 93
Nov 8, 2024
NO @ ORL
88 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+15.0% more
Orlando: 8.4
vs
New Orleans: 7.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.6%
Orlando: 81.3%
vs
New Orleans: 75.7%
Assists (L5)
+42.9% more
New Orleans: 28.4
vs
Orlando: 19.9
Turnovers (L5)
+35.6% more
New Orleans: 15.3
vs
Orlando: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
111.8
113
NO Score
107.5
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.6 / 31.1
28.0 / 39.4
Assists
28.4 / 19.9
23.0 / 25.0
Blocks
5.6 / 5.1
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 42.7
44.3 / 51.8
Free Throw %
75.7 / 81.3
76.2 / 77.8
Rebounding
43.1 / 38.0
40.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.1 / 8.4
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
15.3 / 11.3
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
ORL
NO
ORL
ML
62%
98-61
61%
65-42
58%
48-35
56%
51-40
ATS
68%
107-51-1
64%
68-38-1
58%
48-35
56%
51-40
TTL
75%
119-40
57%
61-46
100%
83-0
100%
91-0
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