Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hornets @ Spurs CHA @ SA

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

16-49  |  Road

145
FINAL
Fri, Mar 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

27-37  |  Home

134
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
SPURS
0%
HORNETS --
SPURS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.7
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.7 points (San Antonio)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 SpursSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

31.9%

Spurs Cover

68.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -4.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)

CHA By 1-7 points

19.0%

CHA By 8-14 points

8.4%

SA By 1-7 points

27.3%

SA By 8-14 points

22.6%

AI Model Projected Score
106.6
CHARLOTTE
111.31
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
CHARLOTTE
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spurs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spurs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 217.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 CHA @ SA 102 - 115
Jan 31, 2026 SA @ CHA 106 - 111
Mar 14, 2025 CHA @ SA 145 - 134
Feb 7, 2025 SA @ CHA 116 - 117
Jan 19, 2024 SA @ CHA 120 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +13.2% more
San Antonio: 30.3 vs Charlotte: 26.7
Steals (L5) +12.1% more
San Antonio: 8.5 vs Charlotte: 7.5
Field Goal % (L5) +8.7%
San Antonio: 52.1% vs Charlotte: 43.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
San Antonio: 36.5% vs Charlotte: 32.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 106.6 145
SA Score 111.3 134
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 32.8 45.7 / 56.5
Assists 30.3 / 26.7 27.0 / 42.0
Blocks 2.7 / 5.7 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 52.1 / 43.4 50.5 / 60.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 85.9 77.3 / 89.5
Rebounding 41.2 / 45.2 36.0 / 34.0
Steals 8.5 / 7.5 14.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 15.2 14.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
SA
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
CHA
SA
CHA
ML
60% 111-73
61% 60-39
58% 61-44
48% 40-44
ATS
58% 107-76-1
60% 59-40
58% 61-44
48% 40-44
TTL
74% 134-47-3
58% 57-42
100% 105-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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