Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Jazz TOR @ UTAH

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

23-43  |  Road

126
FINAL
Fri, Mar 14 • 9:30 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

15-51  |  Home

118
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
JAZZ
0%
RAPTORS --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.7
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.7 points (Utah)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

25.1%

Jazz Cover

74.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -6.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

TOR By 1-7 points

15.8%

TOR By 8-14 points

6.1%

UTAH By 1-7 points

26.4%

UTAH By 8-14 points

25.1%

AI Model Projected Score
107.13
TORONTO
113.84
UTAH
Simulated Score
TORONTO
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jazz Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jazz (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 TOR @ UTAH 143 - 127
Feb 1, 2026 UTAH @ TOR 100 - 107
Mar 14, 2025 TOR @ UTAH 126 - 118
Mar 7, 2025 UTAH @ TOR 109 - 118
Jan 12, 2024 TOR @ UTAH 113 - 145
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.6% more
Utah: 5.7 vs Toronto: 4.4
Turnovers (L5) +18.6% more
Utah: 19.0 vs Toronto: 16.0
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Utah: 45.5% vs Toronto: 42.5%
Steals (L5) +17.5% more
Toronto: 7.3 vs Utah: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 107.1 126
UTAH Score 113.8 118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 36.1 42.1 / 37.5
Assists 25.2 / 28.2 23.0 / 28.0
Blocks 5.7 / 4.4 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 42.5 43.8 / 48.4
Free Throw % 71.8 / 75.6 77.4 / 74.3
Rebounding 52.4 / 56.8 35.0 / 51.0
Steals 6.0 / 7.3 12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 19.0 / 16.0 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
TOR
UTAH
TOR
ML
60% 96-63
55% 57-47
48% 40-43
55% 48-39
ATS
68% 108-51
61% 62-40-2
48% 40-43
55% 48-39
TTL
75% 119-39-1
60% 62-42
100% 83-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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