NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
18-49 | Road
115
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
27-38 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
SPURS
0%
PELICANS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
NO By 1-7 points
24.5%
NO By 8-14 points
14.0%
SA By 1-7 points
26.1%
SA By 8-14 points
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
115.79
NEW ORLEANS
San Antonio
116.61
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 25, 2026
NO @ SA
104 - 95
Dec 8, 2025
SA @ NO
135 - 132
Nov 8, 2025
NO @ SA
119 - 126
Oct 24, 2025
SA @ NO
120 - 116
Mar 15, 2025
NO @ SA
115 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+79.4% more
San Antonio: 10.3
vs
New Orleans: 5.7
Assists (L5)
+9.7% more
San Antonio: 29.2
vs
New Orleans: 26.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
San Antonio: 51.6%
vs
New Orleans: 46.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
San Antonio: 39.6%
vs
New Orleans: 37.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
115.8
115
SA Score
116.6
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.6 / 37.0
41.0 / 34.3
Assists
29.2 / 26.6
26.0 / 34.0
Blocks
3.5 / 5.1
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.6 / 46.9
46.4 / 50.0
Free Throw %
75.5 / 75.9
75.8 / 100.0
Rebounding
39.5 / 42.1
37.0 / 52.0
Steals
10.3 / 5.7
10.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 14.5
10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
NO
SA
NO
ML
60%
111-73
62%
98-61
58%
61-44
58%
48-35
ATS
58%
107-76-1
68%
107-51-1
58%
61-44
58%
48-35
TTL
74%
134-47-3
75%
119-40
100%
105-0
100%
83-0
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