WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
14-51 | Road
126
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
43-24 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
WIZARDS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.9
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.9 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -7.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
WSH By 1-7 points
13.9%
WSH By 8-14 points
4.9%
DEN By 1-7 points
25.4%
DEN By 8-14 points
26.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
108.35
WASHINGTON
Denver
116.24
DENVER
Simulated Score
Washington
WASHINGTON
Denver
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 22, 2026
DEN @ WSH
107 - 97
Jan 17, 2026
WSH @ DEN
115 - 121
Mar 15, 2025
WSH @ DEN
126 - 123
Dec 7, 2024
DEN @ WSH
113 - 122
Feb 22, 2024
WSH @ DEN
110 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.3%
Denver: 49.6%
vs
Washington: 43.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
Denver: 38.9%
vs
Washington: 36.6%
Blocks (L5)
+25.4% more
Washington: 6.4
vs
Denver: 4.8
Steals (L5)
+18.7% more
Washington: 8.6
vs
Denver: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
108.4
126
DEN Score
116.2
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 36.6
35.3 / 42.2
Assists
28.1 / 26.5
40.0 / 34.0
Blocks
4.8 / 6.4
8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.6 / 43.2
50.5 / 48.4
Free Throw %
76.5 / 81.7
88.2 / 88.2
Rebounding
42.0 / 47.7
42.0 / 44.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.6
12.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 13.7
18.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
WSH
DEN
WSH
ML
54%
57-48
70%
112-49
55%
47-39
47%
39-44
ATS
63%
65-38-2
69%
111-49-1
55%
47-39
47%
39-44
TTL
54%
56-48-1
74%
119-41-1
100%
86-0
100%
83-0
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