Home / NBA Projections NBA / Heat @ Knicks MIA @ NY

MIAMI

HEATMIA

29-38  |  Road

95
FINAL
Mon, Mar 17 • 7:30 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

42-24  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
📊
KNICKS
0%
HEAT --
KNICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
212.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (New York)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 KnicksNY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

37.3%

Knicks Cover

62.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NY -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)

MIA By 1-7 points

21.3%

MIA By 8-14 points

10.3%

NY By 1-7 points

27.3%

NY By 8-14 points

20.5%

AI Model Projected Score
104.65
MIAMI
107.89
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
MIAMI
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knicks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knicks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 212.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 MIA @ NY 125 - 132
Nov 17, 2025 NY @ MIA 113 - 115
Nov 14, 2025 MIA @ NY 132 - 140
Oct 26, 2025 NY @ MIA 107 - 115
Mar 17, 2025 MIA @ NY 95 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +30.7% more
New York: 4.8 vs Miami: 3.7
Rebounding (L5) +17.0% more
New York: 44.5 vs Miami: 38.0
Free Throw % (L5) +7.3%
New York: 79.9% vs Miami: 72.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
New York: 37.5% vs Miami: 32.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 104.7 95
NY Score 107.9 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 32.4 47.1 / 26.1
Assists 24.9 / 23.9 30.0 / 23.0
Blocks 4.8 / 3.7 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 43.9 49.5 / 47.6
Free Throw % 79.9 / 72.6 100.0 / 91.7
Rebounding 44.5 / 38.0 41.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.6 / 8.4 12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 14.1 14.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NY
MIA
NY
MIA
ML
61% 114-72
48% 46-50
56% 57-45
59% 48-34
ATS
67% 124-62
51% 49-47
56% 57-45
59% 48-34
TTL
72% 133-53
59% 57-39
100% 102-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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