Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pistons @ Pelicans DET @ NO

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

37-31  |  Road

127
FINAL
Mon, Mar 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

18-50  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
PISTONS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (New Orleans)
PistonsDET (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pistons Cover

35.2%

Pelicans Cover

64.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

DET By 1-7 points

20.4%

DET By 8-14 points

9.6%

NO By 1-7 points

27.4%

NO By 8-14 points

21.3%

AI Model Projected Score
114.14
DETROIT
117.94
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
DETROIT
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 232.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 26, 2026 NO @ DET 108 - 129
Jan 21, 2026 DET @ NO 112 - 104
Mar 23, 2025 NO @ DET 130 - 136
Mar 17, 2025 DET @ NO 127 - 81
Mar 24, 2024 NO @ DET 114 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +10.7% more
New Orleans: 29.1 vs Detroit: 26.3
Free Throw % (L5) +8.6%
New Orleans: 83.9% vs Detroit: 75.3%
Steals (L5) +45.4% more
Detroit: 8.2 vs New Orleans: 4.5
Blocks (L5) +10.8% more
Detroit: 4.9 vs New Orleans: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 114.1 127
NO Score 117.9 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 36.8 15.6 / 37.1
Assists 29.1 / 26.3 18.0 / 33.0
Blocks 4.4 / 4.9 6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 47.7 32.6 / 54.8
Free Throw % 83.9 / 75.3 66.7 / 75.9
Rebounding 45.4 / 44.7 39.0 / 50.0
Steals 4.5 / 8.2 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 15.7 / 14.8 17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
DET
NO
DET
ML
62% 98-61
55% 64-53
58% 48-35
49% 47-49
ATS
68% 107-51-1
53% 60-54-3
58% 48-35
49% 47-49
TTL
75% 119-40
60% 70-46-1
100% 83-0
100% 96-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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